The consensus remains bullish on India even after, or perhaps because of, recent currency reforms. We beg to differ. While Modi’s reform efforts have been impressive, only rivalled by Mexico following the global financial crisis, India still faces significant cyclical headwinds.
China is boosting growth through leverage. Since China already sports one of the highest debt levels worldwide, investors are rightly concerned about a financial crisis. We also see China on course for a financial crisis, but feel the crisis is still a few years away.