Global Emerging Market Economist
Erik identifies investment opportunities across emerging markets. He uses quantitative models, past experience and lots of common sense. Prior to joining LGIM, Erik worked for a hedge fund, a bank, and the IMF.
By Erik Lueth - October 16, 2018 3 mins
Two findings from our recent China trip stand out. First, the economy is much weaker than macro indicators suggest. Second, we believe that the authorities are planning a significant stimulus package to revive activity.
By Erik Lueth - August 28, 2018 2 mins
After Argentina and Turkey, could Brazil be the next emerging market (EM) that goes into crisis? These events are not linked – each of these countries currently has idiosyncratic weaknesses. In the case of Brazil, the fiscal deficit is in the spotlight, coupled with the presidential elections in October.
By Erik Lueth - July 23, 2018 2 mins
Something remarkable has happened over the past two years: China has started to tackle its addiction to debt. With the authorities finally addressing China’s biggest economic weakness, the medium-term risk to the Chinese (and global) economy should be on the decline.
By Erik Lueth - May 16, 2018 2 mins
How does the potential trade war look from China’s angle? Although a full-blown trade war between the US and China is not our base case, there is still a lot to consider. The macro impact currently appears to be very manageable, although even if it all blows over, we observe a tectonic shift in the US-Sino relationship.