Christopher Jeffery

Fixed Income Strategist

Chris is a strategist with a focus on fixed income and systematic dynamic strategies. He joined the team from a similar role at BNP Paribas, having started his career at the Bank of England. When not strategising about bonds, he has an enthusiasm for running, golf and (inexplicably) gardening. A lot of market strategists like to talk rhubarb, Chris prefers to grow it.

Posts by Christopher Jeffery

Strategy

Land of slope and glory

The US yield curve has consistently flattened since the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy several years ago. History strongly suggests that this is an entirely normal market reaction to a rate hiking cycle. If short-term interest rates continue to rise at the pace we expect, we could well be looking at an inverted curve by the middle of 2019.

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Strategy

What's 20 trillion yen between friends?

The Bank of Japan is trying to convince the market that there is “nothing to see here” despite a sharp drop in its asset purchase flow from ¥80 trillion to ¥60 trillion per annum. Add this to the list of reasons to worry about potential yen appreciation, but don’t think of it as a leading concern for global rates or risk assets.

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Strategy

What can the art market teach us about investments?

It turns out, quite a lot. The ability of real assets to retain their inflation-adjusted value over time is hugely valuable. Relatively small differentials in annual returns can compound up into huge differences in outcomes over long periods of time. However, knowing whether an asset is in a bubble comes down to a debate about appropriate discount rates.

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Strategy

Twin peaks: the law of averages and the zero lower bound

In pricing fixed income securities, a lot hangs on the difference between the mean, median and mode. Markets reflect a probability-weighted average of potential outcomes (i.e. the mean); policymakers typically focus on the single most-likely outcome (i.e. the mode). Thinking carefully about the difference has important implications for how we view interest rate risks.

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